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A mere eight weeks in the past that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still find their top level.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.