Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
